Question 1

What is the BTC Cycle Thermometer?

Accepted Answer

The BTC Cycle Thermometer (a top/bottom signal dashboard) fuses nine classic cycle indicators into one 0-100 position score: Mayer Multiple, Pi Cycle, 200-week SMA multiple, power-law regression position, drawdown from ATH, weekly RSI, weekly MACD, Fear & Greed, and a live Bitcoin mining-cost estimate (price-to-all-in-cost ratio) based on the latest-gen miner. 0 means historic bottom traits are stacking; 100 means historic top traits are.

Question 2

How do I use the BTC Cycle Thermometer?

Accepted Answer

Treat it as a cycle thermometer: below 20 matches historic-bottom combos (price under all-in mining cost, below the 200W SMA, extreme fear) — the zone to research staged accumulation; above 80 matches historic-top combos (Pi Cycle near-cross, Mayer above 2.4, price over 3x mining cost, extreme greed) — the zone to research staged profit-taking. Mining cost is the most fundamental anchor here: sustained miner losses have historically marked major bottoms, e.g. Mar 2020 and Nov 2022. On the homepage you can also vote your own call and see whether the crowd agrees with the model.

Question 3

What should I watch out for?

Accepted Answer

No indicator or combination can precisely call tops and bottoms — this score is a probabilistic cycle-position reference, and extreme readings can persist for months. The mining cost is an estimate (dependent on fleet-efficiency, electricity and all-in assumptions, all disclosed on the page) and varies widely across real operations. The score is built on historical patterns; if market structure changes (e.g. ETF-era cycle dampening), historical thresholds may fail. Never treat a single score as a trade instruction.