The Bitcoin Bottom Checklist: Seven Signals That Appeared at Every Major Low
CryptoRebateHub Editorial Team
Mining cost breach, 200W MA touch, numbed extreme fear, weekly RSI oversold, deep drawdown, deep weekly MACD cross, thermometer below 20 — the shared fingerprints of every major low as a checkable list, and why confluence beats any single signal.
No bell rings at the bottom, but major lows do share a set of fingerprints. Lay the 2015, 2018 and 2022 bottoms side by side and the following seven features appear almost in full each time. The more boxes ticked, the closer you are to a historically defined deep-value zone.
1. Price breaches mining cost
When even the most efficient rigs lose money on power, the supply side is capitulating. All three major lows briefly traded below the all-in cost of the latest-generation miners, followed by hashrate decline and seller exhaustion.
2. The 200-week MA is touched
The cross-cycle holder cost basis — see the dedicated piece. Note 2022 pierced it by 25%: it is a zone, not a line.
3. Fear & Greed below 15 — and numb
Single days of extreme fear are common; weeks pinned at 10-15 are the bottom signature — fear stops producing new lows because sellers are spent. Usage details in the contrarian F&G guide.
4. Weekly RSI under 30
Weekly-timeframe oversold has printed only a handful of times in Bitcoin's history, each a generational entry. Daily oversold means nothing; it must be weekly.
5. Drawdown beyond -75% from ATH
The three bears bottomed at -86%, -84% and -77%. The magnitude is converging, but -75% remains a sane threshold for deep water — full distribution in the drawdown history.
6. Deep weekly MACD golden cross
The first five are positional signals; only the weekly MACD answers whether the decline has actually turned. Position lets you scale in; momentum lets you accelerate.
7. Thermometer below 20
The six above (plus power law, Pi Cycle and more) are precisely what the Cycle Thermometer fuses. A score under 20 means most indicators sit in bottom territory simultaneously — one indicator lies, nine together rarely do. The backtested reading in November 2022 touched 8.
Using the list
Count ticks: 0-2 = ordinary correction; 3-4 = worth scaling up DCA; 5+ = historic opportunity zone — but zones last months, so let position discipline, not courage, do the buying.
