Has Bitcoin Bottomed? Judge Daily With 9 Indicators, Not Guesses

Quick answer: Nobody can confirm a bottom in advance, but every historic bottom shared a checkable set of traits — price below the latest-gen miner's all-in cost, at or below the 200-week SMA, weekly MACD deeply negative, Fear & Greed in extreme fear (<20), and a drawdown beyond 60% from ATH. The moments when all of these stacked together were the Mar-2020 and Nov-2022 lows. The BTC Cycle Thermometer fuses them (plus four more) into one 0-100 score updated daily: a reading under 20 means bottom traits are stacking now.

Why bottom-guessing always fails

A bottom is a zone, not a date — and extremes persist. From Nov 2022 to Jan 2023, bottom traits lasted over two months; both the "it will crash further" and the "moon tomorrow" crowds were wrong. The right question isn't "which day is the low" but "where are we in the cycle, and what sizing strategy fits."

The five traits, one by one

Mining cost is the hardest: price below the latest rig's all-in cost means even the most efficient miners lose money — supply-side capitulation, seen at both recent major lows. The 200-week SMA has been the terminal support band of every bear; a deeply negative weekly MACD (DIF below -15% of price) followed by a cross-up is the classic confirmation; extreme fear and deep drawdown map sentiment and position. Any single trait misfires — the signal is when they stack, which is exactly why the thermometer fuses nine into one score.

In practice: replace guessing with tracking + tranches

Glance at the thermometer daily: deep-bottom zone (<20) → execute staged DCA per plan; accumulation (20-40) → maintain; neutral → stop adding. You don't need the exact low — historically, any tranche placed inside the deep-bottom zone landed close enough to the eventual bottom. Let the indicator stack judge, let discipline execute. The score updates daily after 00:00 UTC, with all nine components and the full methodology on the tool page.