DCA, Upgraded: A Zone-by-Zone Playbook Using the Cycle Thermometer

Quick answer: Plain DCA has discipline but is cycle-blind — it buys the same amount at the 2021 top and the 2022 bottom. Temperature-weighted DCA multiplies each installment by the BTC Cycle Thermometer score: deep bottom (<20) ×2, accumulation (20-40) ×1.5, neutral (40-60) ×1, overheating (60-80) ×0.5 plus staged profit-taking, top risk (80+) stop buying and execute exits. Same total budget, chips concentrated in the cold zones.

Why upgrade

Backtest both with the DCA tool across the last two cycles: fixed-amount DCA lands near the cycle's average price, while the weighted version — buying ×2 through the 2022 deep bear for months and pausing in the 2021 80+ zone — achieves a meaningfully lower average cost. It keeps DCA's core virtue: you still never predict; you only let the already-observed cycle position (not a forecast) scale the intensity.

Zone details

Deep-bottom months come wrapped in extreme fear and bad news (late 2022 was exactly this) — the ×2 requires pre-reserved "cold-zone ammo," ideally 6-12 installments. The ×0.5 in overheating isn't bearish; it acknowledges worse odds, and the saved cash goes into the exit bucket. The 80+ discipline mirrors the top-signals checklist: staged selling, no peak-hunting.

Three hard rules

One: fix the multipliers before you start — improvising mid-flight is market timing in disguise. Two: the score is a slow daily variable; checking weekly is enough. Three: the thermometer can fail (failure modes are disclosed in the methodology), so keep margins: never all-in, never leveraged, in any zone. DCA is won not by precision but by still being there in the bear.